NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Nets: O/U 219.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7b783999017d07a4993d072433242ee5f1c27dfbc5ddd42da762496bb5d1d4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5cae…a00abacked Under | 54c | 15,000$8,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,900.94 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Over | 46c | 3,282$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.56 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 2,850$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.61 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa63c…27a4backed Over | 46c | 2,820$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 46c | 2,295$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.7 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 51c | 1,923$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.31 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Over | 46c | 1,566$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.36 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 1c | 1,006$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Over | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Over | 46c | 950$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 614.39$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.12 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 399$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.54 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Over | 52c | 381.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 49c | 283.11$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.19 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 47c | 276.32$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.45 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 46c | 271.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 54c | 217.39$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…ce91backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -9.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 51c | 194.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a82…b6bdbacked Over | 46c | 119.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 50c | 111.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…e269backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 247 | 31.2%77 W · 170 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Over | 47c | 96.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 46c | 78.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 52c | 72.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 42c | 29.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…2a4bbacked Over | 46c | 27.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked Over | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…8aa8backed Under | 78c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…2635backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Nets: O/U 219.5this page
- Bucks vs. NetsNets won
- Bucks vs. Nets: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Nets: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Nets: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Nets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nets: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nets: O/U 215.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nets: O/U 216.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nets: O/U 217.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nets: O/U 218.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Nets won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.