CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ECSTATIC (BO3) - Parken Challenger Championship Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0834947d0d581cd8a99fa075de901a056abe91298a10264881b009e5f83256be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof illwill, ECSTATIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed ECSTATIC | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…8795backed illwill | 56c | 324.56$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.56 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8767…237abacked ECSTATIC | 68c | 312.12$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…f786backed illwill | 33c | 219.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.07 | 131 | 19.8%26 W · 105 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked ECSTATIC | 71c | 210$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9a01backed illwill | 35c | 191.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 439 | 33.7%148 W · 291 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ECSTATIC | 50c | 176.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…8923backed ECSTATIC | 61c | 162.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked ECSTATIC | 43c | 155.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…2d9bbacked illwill | 66c | 155.82$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed ECSTATIC | 12c | 116.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 517 | 55.9%289 W · 228 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ECSTATIC | 54c | 104.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…d47dbacked illwill | 59c | 76.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 608 | 57.2%348 W · 260 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed illwill | 43c | 75.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked illwill | 67c | 75.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 789 | 63.8%503 W · 286 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…7cccbacked ECSTATIC | 60c | 71.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 454 | 50.2%228 W · 226 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed ECSTATIC | 43c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 195 | 49.7%97 W · 98 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked illwill | 57c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 200 | 52.5%105 W · 95 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…377abacked ECSTATIC | 76c | 67.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked ECSTATIC | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed ECSTATIC | 63c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 303 | 35.6%108 W · 195 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked illwill | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 660 | 34.1%225 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked ECSTATIC | 48c | 49.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +35%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…2fc7backed illwill | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 434 | 42.2%183 W · 251 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed illwill | 45c | 42.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 932 | 61.7%575 W · 357 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210e…d188backed illwill | 59c | 38.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…fa01backed ECSTATIC | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84a…126abacked illwill | 28c | 36.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked ECSTATIC | 46c | 32.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…3398backed ECSTATIC | 52c | 30.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed illwill | 64c | 28.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…b17abacked illwill | 35c | 28.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed ECSTATIC | 42c | 28.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | +29.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked illwill | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed ECSTATIC | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked illwill | 60c | 22.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 325 | 36%117 W · 208 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked ECSTATIC | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 387 | 53.2%206 W · 181 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs ECSTATIC (BO3) - Parken Challenger Championship Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs ECSTATIC - Map 2 Winnerillwill won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.