Tennis · resolved market
Prague 2: Matias Soto vs Rudolf Molleker
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x084bc2dc118b7d6f57b1941ef5585fbf557b263c9893c45c6c75c3bc045f98e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rudolf Mollekerof Matias Soto, Rudolf Molleker
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f65…2036backed Matias Soto | 17c | 24,142$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 744 | 39.8%296 W · 448 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Matias Soto | 1c | 2,905$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Matias Soto | 18c | 2,405$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.89 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Matias Soto | 3c | 2,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Matias Soto | 1c | 1,846$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Matias Soto | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Matias Soto | 15c | 1,443$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.11 | 580 | 21.9%127 W · 453 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…c4ebbacked Matias Soto | 10c | 1,288$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.54 | 88 | 10.2%9 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Matias Soto | 13c | 769.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…5fdebacked Matias Soto | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 243 | 44%107 W · 136 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0f79backed Matias Soto | 19c | 389.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Matias Soto | 6c | 326.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 447 | 29.3%131 W · 316 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Matias Soto | 9c | 322.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Matias Soto | 30c | 306.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Matias Soto | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,861 | 44.4%827 W · 1,034 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Rudolf Molleker | 61c | 243.77$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.89 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Matias Soto | 30c | 216.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 279 | 43.4%121 W · 158 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8468…3860backed Matias Soto | 10c | 215.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 242 | 31%75 W · 167 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Rudolf Molleker | 65c | 154.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 470 | 58.5%275 W · 195 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Matias Soto | 35c | 119.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Matias Soto | 16c | 118.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 710 | 21.3%151 W · 559 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…f2f8backed Matias Soto | 17c | 115.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Matias Soto | 35c | 107.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Matias Soto | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 939 | 45.5%427 W · 512 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Matias Soto | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 449 | 46.1%207 W · 242 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc611…cc2ebacked Matias Soto | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Matias Soto | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Matias Soto | 30c | 85.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 408 | 36.8%150 W · 258 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Matias Soto | 41c | 78.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…f972backed Matias Soto | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Rudolf Molleker | 64c | 67.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Matias Soto | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Matias Soto | 30c | 64.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Matias Soto | 30c | 64.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 563 | 37.3%210 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f3…cf28backed Matias Soto | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b6…9b2cbacked Matias Soto | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 57.4%89 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Matias Soto | 31c | 54.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…e84cbacked Rudolf Molleker | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 302 | 68.9%208 W · 94 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Matias Soto | 36c | 52.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Rudolf Molleker | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Matias Soto | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb0…408cbacked Rudolf Molleker | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Matias Soto | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Matias Soto | 40c | 29.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Rudolf Molleker | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Rudolf Molleker | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…0a19backed Rudolf Molleker | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Rudolf Molleker | 61c | 21.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Rudolf Molleker | 65c | 21.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 1,021 | 57.8%590 W · 431 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Rudolf Molleker | 80c | 13.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Prague 2: Matias Soto vs Rudolf Mollekerthis page
- Prague 2: Completed Match: Matias Soto vs Rudolf MollekerYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.