Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: KW vs RE.Arise - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08a53f69944788b6c5fc6907e98e71fac00952c2cacfc588edaa35496fb29527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RE.Ariseof KW, RE.Arise
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked KW | 42c | 32,281$13,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,416.55 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed RE.Arise | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked RE.Arise | 76c | 10,196$7,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,431.6 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked RE.Arise | 51c | 4,936$2,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,409.35 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed RE.Arise | 46c | 3,220$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.06 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked KW | 27c | 3,184$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.61 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed KW | 49c | 1,706$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.59 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked RE.Arise | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.14 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked KW | 47c | 1,472$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.26 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…efdcbacked KW | 64c | 1,203$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.14 | 194 | 56.2%109 W · 85 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked KW | 46c | 1,051$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.18 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked KW | 50c | 1,029$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.92 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed RE.Arise | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed KW | 48c | 973.23$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.12 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed RE.Arise | 58c | 957.97$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.09 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked RE.Arise | 50c | 915.99$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed KW | 46c | 894.96$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.91 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed RE.Arise | 43c | 849.95$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.97 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked KW | 38c | 811.59$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.55 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a5…db43backed RE.Arise | 79c | 631.08$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.08 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed KW | 50c | 605.2$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.6 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked KW | 63c | 562.57$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.85 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…6ba4backed KW | 47c | 520$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…6bf4backed RE.Arise | 47c | 474.25$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.25 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked RE.Arise | 79c | 433.38$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.83 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked KW | 35c | 425.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.03 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…b188backed KW | 50c | 398.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked KW | 48c | 372.56$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.79 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed RE.Arise | 52c | 365.02$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.14 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…be27backed RE.Arise | 57c | 364.17$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.91 | 210 | 47.6%100 W · 110 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed KW | 45c | 350$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -17.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked RE.Arise | 38c | 349.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.69 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked KW | 37c | 335.47$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.82 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed KW | 12c | 327.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed KW | 31c | 324.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed KW | 46c | 320$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.32 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x453e…eabcbacked KW | 53c | 316.29$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.33 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed RE.Arise | 56c | 311.68$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.62 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…f884backed KW | 49c | 308.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked KW | 40c | 289.68$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.07 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed KW | 38c | 246$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked RE.Arise | 62c | 245.32$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked KW | 40c | 245.07$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bfcbbacked KW | 50c | 227$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed KW | 37c | 198.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed KW | 17c | 195$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed KW | 41c | 178.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed KW | 36c | 168.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked RE.Arise | 58c | 162.06$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed RE.Arise | 46c | 151.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked RE.Arise | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…934fbacked RE.Arise | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 128 | 60.9%78 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe434…f520backed KW | 68c | 148.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed KW | 64c | 140$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed KW | 66c | 139.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed RE.Arise | 77c | 126.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked KW | 20c | 119.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…9ffdbacked KW | 13c | 119.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…5f8ebacked KW | 63c | 118.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed RE.Arise | 56c | 101.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | +16.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked KW | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked KW | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…44a0backed KW | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked RE.Arise | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked KW | 50c | 94.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked RE.Arise | 56c | 92.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise | 62c | 91.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed RE.Arise | 50c | 89.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed KW | 46c | 86.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed RE.Arise | 79c | 81.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 274 | 59.5%163 W · 111 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x054e…51bdbacked RE.Arise | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked KW | 42c | 78.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked KW | 52c | 77.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed KW | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…6d99backed KW | 49c | 74.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed RE.Arise | 63c | 74.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…a98abacked KW | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed KW | 31c | 66.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed KW | 50c | 61.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 125 | 59.2%74 W · 51 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127d…4706backed RE.Arise | 79c | 61.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d9…fa69backed RE.Arise | 49c | 61.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa4…1211backed RE.Arise | 55c | 54.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked KW | 46c | 54.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad7…6469backed RE.Arise | 43c | 50.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked RE.Arise | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc1…9a14backed KW | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed RE.Arise | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked RE.Arise | 74c | 39.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c0e6backed RE.Arise | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 222 | 59%131 W · 91 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked RE.Arise | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf23…6b34backed RE.Arise | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…4400backed RE.Arise | 40c | 28.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked KW | 39c | 28.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed KW | 38c | 26.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed KW | 56c | 23.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked KW | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0932…ba5abacked RE.Arise | 60c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: KW vs RE.Arise - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: KW vs RE.Arise (BO3) - EPL Masters Group BRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: KW vs RE.Arise - Game 1 WinnerRE.Arise won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.