Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: KW vs RE.Arise (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa450ebad11517686fa7d56bd9c325d56e7375eb8a18d140ddd7545e4020b583e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RE.Ariseof KW, RE.Arise
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed KW | 19c | 744.74$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.74 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed KW | 18c | 348.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae27…6fb2backed KW | 20c | 236.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed KW | 14c | 203.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked KW | 13c | 152.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed KW | 22c | 145.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise | 75c | 137.18$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked KW | 21c | 121.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked KW | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed KW | 15c | 102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked KW | 15c | 84.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked KW | 17c | 81.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed KW | 17c | 76.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed KW | 23c | 64.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed KW | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked RE.Arise | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked RE.Arise | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 217 | 42.9%93 W · 124 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked RE.Arise | 77c | 29.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked RE.Arise | 74c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: KW vs RE.Arise (BO3) - EPL Masters Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: KW vs RE.Arise - Game 1 WinnerRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: KW vs RE.Arise - Game 2 WinnerRE.Arise won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.