Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: KW vs RE.Arise - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x904d962699c97f6e7be08a16b505ae8dd59dedd8818f848c7da59d48bf4bb47a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RE.Ariseof KW, RE.Arise
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked KW | 30c | 24,187$7,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,137.88 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed RE.Arise | 75c | 10,484$7,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,598.92 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed KW | 36c | 10,439$3,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,740.53 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked KW | 42c | 7,541$3,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,176.84 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked RE.Arise | 65c | 4,359$2,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.62 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked KW | 18c | 3,594$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.74 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked RE.Arise | 73c | 2,745$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.14 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed RE.Arise | 65c | 2,588$1,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.27 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed KW | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.99 | 304 | 52.3%159 W · 145 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed RE.Arise | 65c | 1,934$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.09 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed RE.Arise | 64c | 1,730$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.69 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked KW | 32c | 1,567$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.23 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked RE.Arise | 63c | 1,559$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.72 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked RE.Arise | 65c | 1,535$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.32 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked RE.Arise | 71c | 1,506$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.25 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed RE.Arise | 68c | 1,472$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.86 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked RE.Arise | 73c | 1,362$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.35 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked RE.Arise | 75c | 1,240$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.32 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…b188backed RE.Arise | 65c | 1,233$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.82 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed KW | 43c | 1,156$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2b…cec3backed RE.Arise | 63c | 1,083$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.21 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223a…f30ebacked RE.Arise | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked RE.Arise | 64c | 791.24$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.85 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…efdcbacked KW | 30c | 786.67$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.6 | 194 | 56.2%109 W · 85 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed RE.Arise | 62c | 700$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453e…eabcbacked RE.Arise | 79c | 681.88$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.88 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488a…cb68backed RE.Arise | 64c | 635.79$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed RE.Arise | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…4fa6backed RE.Arise | 66c | 564.99$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.56 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise | 63c | 544.55$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed KW | 29c | 520.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…1b8ebacked RE.Arise | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 224 | 38.8%87 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed RE.Arise | 63c | 464.89$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked RE.Arise | 62c | 450$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed RE.Arise | 53c | 437.17$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.06 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked RE.Arise | 69c | 415.36$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.98 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked RE.Arise | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…9077backed RE.Arise | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed RE.Arise | 66c | 378$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked KW | 37c | 352.03$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.93 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed RE.Arise | 52c | 351.01$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.33 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | +16.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed RE.Arise | 64c | 350$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…bf89backed RE.Arise | 63c | 341.27$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.27 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked RE.Arise | 64c | 340$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…6d99backed RE.Arise | 63c | 337$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.69 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed RE.Arise | 63c | 327.42$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.15 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…3e7abacked RE.Arise | 63c | 324$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed KW | 31c | 312.29$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39e2…c00ebacked RE.Arise | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed KW | 34c | 295.8$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed RE.Arise | 62c | 295.11$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.14 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked RE.Arise | 66c | 294.27$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.59 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked RE.Arise | 70c | 271.96$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise | 68c | 267.84$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed RE.Arise | 66c | 261$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1a89backed RE.Arise | 63c | 255.31$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…142dbacked RE.Arise | 71c | 249.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked RE.Arise | 71c | 248.56$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked RE.Arise | 68c | 237.35$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe434…f520backed RE.Arise | 74c | 224.71$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked KW | 40c | 200.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…5f8ebacked RE.Arise | 53c | 188.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…f884backed RE.Arise | 62c | 161.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x455e…f7f9backed RE.Arise | 73c | 156.45$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked RE.Arise | 62c | 151.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…934fbacked KW | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 128 | 60.9%78 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked RE.Arise | 62c | 149.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d8…f6b6backed RE.Arise | 69c | 149.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…5cd4backed KW | 32c | 141.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed RE.Arise | 52c | 135.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…4400backed KW | 28c | 135.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed RE.Arise | 66c | 132.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed RE.Arise | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed KW | 33c | 126.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked RE.Arise | 49c | 124.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed RE.Arise | 63c | 119.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…60f0backed KW | 9c | 115.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4420…5658backed RE.Arise | 64c | 110.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…1b0abacked RE.Arise | 66c | 109$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed RE.Arise | 68c | 102.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked RE.Arise | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed RE.Arise | 63c | 88.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed RE.Arise | 71c | 79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d9…fa69backed RE.Arise | 63c | 78.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc1…9a14backed RE.Arise | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed KW | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed KW | 31c | 69.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked RE.Arise | 64c | 66.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed RE.Arise | 44c | 65.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…6219backed RE.Arise | 80c | 62.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked RE.Arise | 60c | 61.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked KW | 18c | 61.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked RE.Arise | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked RE.Arise | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked RE.Arise | 60c | 47.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked RE.Arise | 77c | 46.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b00…3d66backed RE.Arise | 63c | 45.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked RE.Arise | 49c | 44.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed RE.Arise | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed KW | 48c | 39.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: KW vs RE.Arise - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: KW vs RE.Arise (BO3) - EPL Masters Group BRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: KW vs RE.Arise - Game 2 WinnerRE.Arise won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.