WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08b0e07d0ff8213bc4843d54af82e8f2df01b5eac5c9481303a5b6d33ea16cf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PortlandFire | 49c | 7,296$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,549.89 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 4,027$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.07 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 2,097$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.73 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 1,905$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.94 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…51dcbacked PortlandFire | 51c | 1,578$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PortlandFire | 49c | 807.82$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.83 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 731.15$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.98 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1378…dbd2backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 583.66$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 437.6$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.26 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 399.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.57 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 387.29$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.7 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed PortlandFire | 67c | 266.74$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked PortlandFire | 49c | 251.02$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked PortlandFire | 38c | 161.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed PortlandFire | 54c | 156.43$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 142.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed Las Vegas Aces | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed PortlandFire | 48c | 109.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Las Vegas Aces | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed PortlandFire | 51c | 96.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed PortlandFire | 52c | 68.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Las Vegas Aces | 62c | 64.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed PortlandFire | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Las Vegas Aces | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed PortlandFire | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed PortlandFire | 47c | 49.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked PortlandFire | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…bdbebacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 32.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a6…08bfbacked PortlandFire | 51c | 31.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 29.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 28.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…5911backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 27.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -6.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked PortlandFire | 46c | 25.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 64 | 1.6%1 W · 63 L | -26.1wins | -0.41per pick | 42cpaid | -97.6%equal weight | 17-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 24.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFireLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 173.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.