WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa07b72591919a1670c2baa04cb284ace30369123d5abb701f3f7ad6d17b58511
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 8,385$4,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,639.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 42c | 7,922$3,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,362.7 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Las Vegas Aces | 58c | 7,755$4,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,280.46 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 6,174$3,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.07 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed PortlandFire | 46c | 5,849$2,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,690.46 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PortlandFire | 43c | 2,757$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.55 | 1,012 | 47.9%485 W · 527 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed PortlandFire | 46c | 1,250$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed PortlandFire | 52c | 1,183$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.09 | 214 | 47.7%102 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 46c | 918.73$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.07 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked PortlandFire | 43c | 785.44$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.74 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PortlandFire | 57c | 698.36$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.21 | 391 | 50.4%197 W · 194 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked PortlandFire | 46c | 451.49$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.68 | 932 | 48.8%455 W · 477 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Las Vegas Aces | 62c | 280$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed PortlandFire | 55c | 276.73$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.2 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed PortlandFire | 46c | 254.34$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.72 | 859 | 48.4%416 W · 443 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8077…ffefbacked PortlandFire | 36c | 243.9$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +8.0wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed PortlandFire | 43c | 232.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 657 | 51.4%338 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed PortlandFire | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 796 | 48.7%388 W · 408 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed PortlandFire | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 169.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.58 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…2f98backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 147.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed PortlandFire | 54c | 96.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 612 | 42.3%259 W · 353 L | -31.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed PortlandFire | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe325…34d0backed PortlandFire | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked PortlandFire | 58c | 52.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked PortlandFire | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed PortlandFire | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 511 | 47.2%241 W · 270 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed PortlandFire | 43c | 39.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked PortlandFire | 43c | 39.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0193…6db1backed PortlandFire | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed PortlandFire | 45c | 32.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…5911backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 31.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -6.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 67c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked PortlandFire | 46c | 28.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed PortlandFire | 46c | 25.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 761 | 42.7%325 W · 436 L | -19.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked PortlandFire | 47c | 24.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 64 | 1.6%1 W · 63 L | -26.1wins | -0.41per pick | 42cpaid | -97.6%equal weight | 17-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked PortlandFire | 70c | 23.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 515 | 52.6%271 W · 244 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked PortlandFire | 70c | 20.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed PortlandFire | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFireLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 173.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.