WNBA · resolved market
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x031fff6a054f709e61eb3637ea6d7cf27dbae00bc156545c56f2eba4fa4246fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 1,482$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.14 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 53c | 1,194$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.79 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 420$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.6 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed Under | 55c | 344.66$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 5c | 253$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 54c | 243.46$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.47 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1495…d3f9backed Under | 42c | 235.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 56c | 208.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 45c | 201.91$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.05 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…7823backed Under | 57c | 150.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -7.1wins | -0.31per pick | 52cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Over | 46c | 147.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 142.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 38c | 119$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Under | 57c | 106.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 87.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 57c | 70.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 45.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…1f30backed Under | 53c | 41.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 55c | 33.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ff…55f2backed Over | 49c | 29.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 56c | 21.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFireLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 173.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.