WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a8fd40c21a3a6eb8bfb4a14544390d9cee54035a72c92b7e24853e1bd64e6a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 57,237$27,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,318.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 51c | 19,049$9,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,783.32 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed PortlandFire | 51c | 16,696$8,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,586.84 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed PortlandFire | 52c | 11,046$5,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,743.97 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed PortlandFire | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed PortlandFire | 52c | 1,346$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed PortlandFire | 48c | 977.66$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.51 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 794.06$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.23 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ed…0a9fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 727$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 692.99$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.35 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked PortlandFire | 50c | 644.76$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.38 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…4800backed PortlandFire | 56c | 604.82$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.7 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…bda7backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 566.54$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked PortlandFire | 52c | 400.77$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.4 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 400$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…e875backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 375.94$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed PortlandFire | 58c | 346.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 54c | 335.17$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.65 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed PortlandFire | 52c | 233$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…f609backed PortlandFire | 57c | 228.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…19abbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Las Vegas Aces | 60c | 204.96$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed PortlandFire | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked PortlandFire | 50c | 159.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 153.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…0d64backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Las Vegas Aces | 22c | 125.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed PortlandFire | 13c | 100.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed PortlandFire | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed PortlandFire | 52c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked PortlandFire | 52c | 57.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ec…aa22backed Las Vegas Aces | 32c | 51.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +182%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked PortlandFire | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8d…aeedbacked PortlandFire | 61c | 31.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed PortlandFire | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…900ebacked PortlandFire | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Las Vegas Aces | 42c | 26.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 25.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed PortlandFire | 52c | 22.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFireLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5Over won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 173.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.