Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09472f75f80cd91871c0eaa8df5abf4a9047255cd5d38f173ca63ae4bb78244a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 267.72$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 246.08$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 41c | 195.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 54c | 149.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 140$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 37c | 133.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 125.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 43c | 123.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 119.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 105$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 39c | 102.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 40c | 101.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 24c | 98.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 42c | 96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 59c | 86.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 83.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 78c | 80.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 38c | 68.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…9617backed No | 59c | 68.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 61.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 55.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 58c | 55.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 53.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 36c | 52.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 59c | 52.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 47.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 43c | 45.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 43.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 56c | 40.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 39c | 36.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 59c | 35.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 27.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 63c | 25.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6b…e23cbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 46c | 24.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 21.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 59c | 20.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 62c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.