Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb414649b5a51f11bd394ce048625c0d63bb7f49f9b1bea6ba379e7a72a20f96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 40c | 279.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.95 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 134$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 120.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 116.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 113.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 107.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 105.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 46c | 101.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 51c | 96.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 59c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 83.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 40c | 78.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 75c | 73.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 71.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 64c | 70.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 60c | 69.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 76c | 60.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 53.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 57c | 52.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…14e8backed Yes | 42c | 52.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 58c | 51.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 41c | 49.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 46.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 45c | 45.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 44.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 45c | 44.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 38c | 41.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 40.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 64c | 38.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 38.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 64c | 35.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 43c | 33.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 32c | 33.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 37c | 32.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…88d2backed No | 58c | 32.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x074f…6abfbacked Yes | 74c | 31.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 31.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 72c | 29.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 27.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 26.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 61c | 26.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 21.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 67c | 16.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.