NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Nets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x094cd4f3891fa9e575209bbc92fb6d26f92bd5a8d07caced7ef8eb9c7e043dca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Nets | 38c | 8,068$3,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,051.26 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Thunder | 61c | 3,280$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.93 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Thunder | 64c | 1,865$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.68 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Thunder | 49c | 1,408$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.41 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Thunder | 65c | 1,355$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.68 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Nets | 28c | 1,301$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.77 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Nets | 50c | 1,174$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Thunder | 64c | 656.25$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.25 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked Thunder | 69c | 600$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Thunder | 66c | 588.24$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc27c…50b6backed Nets | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcad…5078backed Thunder | 65c | 460.55$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.17 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Thunder | 65c | 430$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Nets | 5c | 422.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…e313backed Nets | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ef…30f5backed Thunder | 67c | 371.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…58d9backed Thunder | 53c | 353.44$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Nets | 3c | 344$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Nets | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 160 | 42.5%68 W · 92 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Nets | 36c | 287$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 667 | 32.4%216 W · 451 L | +41.8wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Nets | 46c | 280.43$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Thunder | 54c | 278.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.06 | 489 | 38.7%189 W · 300 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Thunder | 59c | 243.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nets | 41c | 243.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 893 | 53%473 W · 420 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thunder | 59c | 230$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Thunder | 59c | 199.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Nets | 48c | 187.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 463 | 42.5%197 W · 266 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…6bf3backed Thunder | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…884cbacked Nets | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0512…6f17backed Thunder | 52c | 133.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Nets | 53c | 132.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7a…b24cbacked Nets | 54c | 129$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nets | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Nets | 44c | 100.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Nets | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 370 | 11.4%42 W · 328 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nets | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…a193backed Thunder | 70c | 99.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed6e…6040backed Thunder | 63c | 92.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…86dabacked Nets | 44c | 86.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Nets | 30c | 76.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 205 | 47.8%98 W · 107 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Thunder | 56c | 73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 285 | 48.4%138 W · 147 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…faa7backed Thunder | 50c | 68.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nets | 37c | 66.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Nets | 42c | 65.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38d…52a2backed Thunder | 61c | 65.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d99…24f0backed Thunder | 67c | 62.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Nets | 34c | 59.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Nets | 49c | 49.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Nets | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed Nets | 32c | 33.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…f36abacked Thunder | 76c | 33.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…f0f9backed Thunder | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc8…32dfbacked Thunder | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Thunder | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…1cdabacked Nets | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba0…3d98backed Thunder | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Thunder | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Thunder | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Thunder | 51c | 27.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 119 | 34.5%41 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1865…8c71backed Thunder | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b83…e63dbacked Thunder | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c7…b911backed Thunder | 75c | 23.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0b…f4f6backed Thunder | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…22ecbacked Thunder | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Thunder | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa910…0777backed Nets | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Thunder | 77c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.