MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x096c001b07620c436f6b622ed2841503b16016055027a64ccc340f68cf121ede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 8,415$6,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,206.05 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 25c | 3,989$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.73 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 28c | 2,404$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.91 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 25c | 1,647$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.28 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 507.06$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.3 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees | 31c | 354.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 340.97$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.7 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…72f4backed New York Yankees | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 331.54$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 23c | 294.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Yankees | 31c | 249$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed New York Yankees | 28c | 236.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 182.03$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 162$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 115.72$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked New York Yankees | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed New York Yankees | 30c | 94.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 62.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed New York Yankees | 28c | 59.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed New York Yankees | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Baltimore Orioles | 76c | 53.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed New York Yankees | 30c | 51.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed New York Yankees | 30c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 282 | 56.4%159 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 27.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 22.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 20.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 19.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.