MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7a0a481755814f1964b082118e30c85bbfe698e7e3d3d722c07fe0935e42214
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x263c…b2aebacked Over | 59c | 40,887$24,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,120.34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…1bfabacked Under | 44c | 33,749$14,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,059.67 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 40c | 13,519$5,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,057.72 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 6,683$3,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,811.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Over | 58c | 6,414$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 435 | 54%235 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 41c | 3,799$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.63 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 2,890$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 2,726$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.31 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Under | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Over | 58c | 2,222$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.79 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 41c | 2,005$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.19 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 43c | 1,905$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.71 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 54c | 1,876$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.04 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 41c | 1,600$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 57c | 1,447$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.83 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 42c | 1,076$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.57 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 24c | 971$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.04 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 956.18$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 43c | 952.38$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.86 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 883.47$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Over | 72c | 789.97$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.78 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 42c | 745.19$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.21 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 616$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 41c | 475.4$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.07 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Under | 44c | 458.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 57c | 399.98$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…80a7backed Over | 70c | 349.42$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.28 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 261.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.91 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 36c | 237.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.97 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 39c | 209.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 206.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 54c | 187.59$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 54c | 185.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 45c | 177$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 56c | 169.16$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…7e4abacked Over | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 58c | 137$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…c12abacked Under | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 46c | 131.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Under | 65c | 130.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Over | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 57c | 97.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 54c | 93.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 54c | 93.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 27c | 83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 37c | 79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 54c | 70.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 66.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x003f…3805backed Over | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 54c | 55.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 43c | 51.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 60c | 50.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 43c | 48.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 42c | 44.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Over | 57c | 42.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…4870backed Under | 44c | 42.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 59c | 42.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 59c | 42.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 54c | 37.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 58c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Over | 58c | 33.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 63c | 30.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…0035backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 62c | 25.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…2bb7backed Over | 48c | 25.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 57c | 22.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2130…ffb2backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Over | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.