MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x235a311b86e5361259a99ff7229d54d7942584cc4c040495a17c35469134880d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x927c…6633backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 12,400$4,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,087.09 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 67c | 8,743$5,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,887.97 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees | 47c | 3,846$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,038.35 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 3,762$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.93 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 66c | 2,720$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.4 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees | 69c | 1,460$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.54 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed New York Yankees | 40c | 988.77$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.26 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 912.96$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.15 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 799.99$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.07 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Yankees | 45c | 584.57$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.58 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 568.58$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.75 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked New York Yankees | 41c | 516.59$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.01 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed New York Yankees | 80c | 463.21$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.21 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 433.96$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.62 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed New York Yankees | 67c | 264.88$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 199.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 199.46$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees | 39c | 149.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 145.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…33c9backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 141.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 138$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.18 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 116$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 83.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 16c | 74.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed New York Yankees | 40c | 73.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 72.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed New York Yankees | 67c | 70.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…e635backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 61.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed New York Yankees | 67c | 61.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 59.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed New York Yankees | 40c | 56.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 53.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked New York Yankees | 41c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed New York Yankees | 27c | 44.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 42.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 41.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 40.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 201 | 61.2%123 W · 78 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 47c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 38.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed New York Yankees | 40c | 34.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Yankees | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 25.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 25.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…0035backed New York Yankees | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked New York Yankees | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed New York Yankees | 70c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.