NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x096d36a3e283cf9185e708f52939d383577d281999116b60800cf103cdf46e93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jacketsof Canadiens, Blue Jackets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07aa…deb1backed Canadiens | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Blue Jackets | 69c | 1,315$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.65 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Blue Jackets | 68c | 745.22$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.47 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Canadiens | 31c | 708.42$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.24 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Blue Jackets | 69c | 504$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.24 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Canadiens | 29c | 499.96$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Canadiens | 31c | 419.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 249 | 52.2%130 W · 119 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Blue Jackets | 72c | 409.8$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Blue Jackets | 69c | 399$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…080dbacked Blue Jackets | 46c | 384$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.56 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 32c | 354$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.74 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Blue Jackets | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…c665backed Canadiens | 31c | 280.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Canadiens | 29c | 224.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Canadiens | 29c | 166.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Canadiens | 29c | 143.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Canadiens | 53c | 129.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Blue Jackets | 71c | 112.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Canadiens | 30c | 99.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Canadiens | 30c | 72.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Blue Jackets | 71c | 71.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Blue Jackets | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Canadiens | 34c | 64.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Canadiens | 54c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Canadiens | 54c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Canadiens | 54c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Blue Jackets | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Blue Jackets | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Canadiens | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Canadiens | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Blue Jackets | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Blue Jackets | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Blue Jackets | 70c | 33.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Blue Jackets | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Blue Jackets | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Blue Jackets | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Blue Jackets | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f6…b8c6backed Blue Jackets | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Blue Jackets | 69c | 24.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Blue Jackets | 71c | 23.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Blue Jackets | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Blue Jackets | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Blue Jackets | 69c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Blue Jackets vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Under won
- Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.