Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0975f3f5d134fae75f1dc141ebeb45c891cc593147cf5b71169bedb694f459d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 50c | 1,143$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.73 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 39c | 1,122$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.38 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Yes | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 676.27$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.28 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…98bebacked Yes | 50c | 573.4$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 54c | 400.22$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.32 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 60c | 276.02$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.37 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 47c | 273.5$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.71 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 77c | 263.89$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 57c | 251.3$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.31 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 221.42$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…21a8backed Yes | 37c | 195.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 52c | 144.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 53c | 141.35$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 22c | 129.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 24c | 125.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Yes | 56c | 114.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 51c | 106.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 75c | 99.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked No | 64c | 98.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 51c | 95.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Yes | 23c | 94.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 45c | 93.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 34c | 88.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…b470backed Yes | 17c | 84.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b5…f7ebbacked Yes | 55c | 83.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +39%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 28c | 78.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 23c | 75.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 41c | 67.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 56c | 66.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 78c | 63.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Yes | 30c | 60.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 60c | 60.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 54c | 49.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 73c | 48.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 22c | 47.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 31c | 47.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked No | 50c | 47.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 47.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723d…05d7backed Yes | 62c | 47.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 71c | 41.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…5453backed No | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 38c | 38.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53f…570cbacked Yes | 50c | 37.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Yes | 71c | 34.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9d56…ffa7backed Yes | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 62c | 27.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 73c | 26.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 54c | 22.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 63c | 21.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 57c | 20.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed No | 79c | 19.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 76c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 68c | 19.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked No | 75c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…6aa7backed No | 76c | 14.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…8417backed No | 75c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?this page
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.