Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18ab61c41233b425f17f7b1181f2f120338a582231ed2ecbc45bb9d50881a17c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 49c | 1,897$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.97 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 18c | 1,106$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.4 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e68…2d32backed Yes | 53c | 1,087$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 47c | 1,035$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.25 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 72c | 894.93$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.86 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 28c | 516.66$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.18 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 72c | 483.25$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.31 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 47c | 479.21$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.6 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 28c | 462.37$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 65c | 297.22$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Yes | 76c | 290.66$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 51c | 284.26$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.64 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…3fe8backed No | 47c | 259.97$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.18 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 65c | 248.66$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked No | 48c | 200.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…ab76backed No | 16c | 187$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 43c | 183.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.7 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed Yes | 54c | 171.11$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 42c | 144.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…32f8backed Yes | 72c | 142.83$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Yes | 52c | 142$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 28c | 134.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked No | 10c | 120.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 16c | 114.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 18c | 112.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…3ed7backed Yes | 74c | 106.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 29c | 105$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 31c | 102.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 53c | 100.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 47c | 92.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 53c | 91.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 28c | 85.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 45c | 73.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Yes | 72c | 68.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 48c | 61.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 30c | 60.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 29c | 56.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 45c | 50.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 53c | 47.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 29c | 45.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 32c | 45.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 49c | 38.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Yes | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Yes | 35c | 36.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed No | 62c | 35.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Yes | 48c | 33.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Yes | 53c | 33.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…eb76backed Yes | 38c | 33.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 52c | 29.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed No | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 54c | 23.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 46c | 22.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…675cbacked No | 53c | 20.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…3b2fbacked Yes | 53c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…8417backed Yes | 72c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?No won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.