Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x099da46e77256de722edd4ec22eda17402a51868da87a0d6342fd14a8b597b8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8297…d600backed No | 79c | 608.55$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe86…4a1ebacked Yes | 40c | 569.91$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 452.19$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 41c | 326.82$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.52 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 252.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 76c | 241.14$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 198.94$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 42c | 184$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 27c | 183.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 175.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 171.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 169$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 60c | 166.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a50cbacked No | 78c | 162.85$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 66c | 161.71$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 32c | 159.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 38c | 155.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 69c | 145.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 143.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 79c | 127.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 105.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 39c | 101.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 100.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 26c | 98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 97.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 93.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 78.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 34c | 78.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 75.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4d…3375backed No | 79c | 72.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 68c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 22c | 68.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked No | 61c | 62.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 32c | 61.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 56.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 37c | 55.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 51.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 36c | 48.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 47.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 31c | 46.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…b551backed No | 65c | 44.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 40c | 43.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 66c | 40.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4840…ced7backed Yes | 41c | 40.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 35c | 39.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 31.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 29.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21f…cf00backed No | 65c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 25.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 70c | 25.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 20.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 62c | 20.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…ebe8backed No | 65c | 20.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 62c | 16.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.