Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0fb3ebe04691fbf9df5a5b4a903382a6f81e5a49bdfc64df7bf0c9b089f85d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 27c | 590.62$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.33 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 16c | 379.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 245.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 243.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 58c | 230.55$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.25 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 221.29$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 46c | 219.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 205.09$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 193.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 181.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 175.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 170.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 170.14$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 158.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 13c | 152.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 150.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 145.11$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 143.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 48c | 130.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 37c | 107.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 52c | 98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 50c | 95.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 95.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 55c | 91.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 44c | 91.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 24c | 86.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 75.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 57c | 63.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 46c | 58.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 52c | 55.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 55c | 54.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 47c | 52.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 46.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…ee79backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 54c | 42.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 41.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 50c | 40.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 65c | 40.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…0f87backed No | 55c | 39.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 46c | 38.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 47c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 45c | 35.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 53c | 34.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 35c | 34.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 47c | 34.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 31.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd3…69bebacked No | 49c | 29.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 28.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 64c | 27.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 64c | 25.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 24.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 63c | 24.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 48c | 21.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 55c | 21.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 55c | 21.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 51c | 20.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc799…3bddbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 52c | 19.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 63c | 19.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 71c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.