Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Newcastle end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09d84fcbc816690a99e610170174052613cf4eb4e4b1715fd19b78c739fc2112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 2c | 4,342$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f3babacked Yes | 28c | 4,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 10c | 3,797$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.8 | 277 | 52%144 W · 133 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…b978backed Yes | 2c | 2,517$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked No | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.99 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 72c | 1,638$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.01 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc2…f6abbacked No | 73c | 1,510$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,214$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked No | 73c | 499.93$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 28c | 434.68$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.71 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…58f6backed No | 73c | 368.92$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…e43bbacked No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 72c | 214.69$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 166 | 60.8%101 W · 65 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c67…dfa8backed No | 74c | 175.68$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 72c | 150.67$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…f9c5backed No | 73c | 128.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 26c | 124.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…3237backed No | 73c | 111.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…4d07backed No | 73c | 107.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20fa…5ed9backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…3e1fbacked Yes | 28c | 107.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…9e72backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…5589backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.5wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…290ebacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…d698backed Yes | 28c | 88.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 72c | 74.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…4589backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…c599backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd07f…6c05backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…81e0backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 26c | 49.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 72c | 38.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…4957backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -5.3wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…e789backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Newcastle end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-30?No won
- Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.