Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a0be7e87ea9dac29cef030a2bbc3272c2a508cf889f75e0cdd2e56e23d8533f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Yes | 33c | 390.82$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.59 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 15c | 333$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 305.15$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 32c | 235$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 13c | 232.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 70c | 213.54$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 14c | 199.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 22c | 196.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 11c | 176.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 34c | 173.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 62c | 168.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 26c | 166.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 36c | 157.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.07 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 153.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 30c | 142.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 37c | 120$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 111.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed No | 65c | 102.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 63c | 90.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 86.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 22c | 86.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 42c | 83.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 83.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 81.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 78.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 77.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 73.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 71.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 68c | 67.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 29c | 67.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 67.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 25c | 60.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 32c | 56.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 56.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…a996backed Yes | 37c | 53.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 38c | 53.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…c68dbacked Yes | 26c | 51.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 56c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 48.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf81…0bc0backed No | 52c | 47.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 66c | 47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 46.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 30c | 45.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 70c | 39.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…977cbacked Yes | 31c | 39.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 70c | 38.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 28c | 37.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 42c | 36.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5160…799cbacked Yes | 49c | 32.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 63c | 25.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 66c | 21.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 68c | 19.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 17.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.