Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa51715598040fa95b7dc05d07a1cfef774e7bda2d4d3027a22ec7298aef0a1ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed Yes | 25c | 1,410$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.74 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 575.24$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 458.03$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 33c | 383.37$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 275.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 266.76$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 75c | 251.34$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 80c | 221.47$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 24c | 208.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed No | 76c | 202.02$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.41 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 75c | 162.94$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 21c | 161.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…5842backed Yes | 18c | 156.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 39c | 146.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 133.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 131.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 60c | 128.27$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 16c | 126.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 114.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked No | 62c | 114.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 76c | 113.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 69c | 108.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaee…e27abacked Yes | 33c | 101$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 100.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 71c | 100.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…c45dbacked Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed No | 61c | 99.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 88.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 69c | 84.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…274cbacked Yes | 18c | 81.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 31c | 77.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…9867backed Yes | 18c | 76.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 50c | 76.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 71.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 77c | 70.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 76c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…a999backed No | 67c | 58.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 36c | 56.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 28c | 53.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 33c | 52.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 28c | 50.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 50.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 49.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 77c | 47.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 26c | 45.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…299fbacked Yes | 23c | 43.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…cbe1backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 40.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 63c | 39.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 39.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…5652backed No | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 79c | 35.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 72c | 28.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 26.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…a5acbacked No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 25.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 23.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 62c | 22.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cff…3e06backed No | 69c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 73c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…aae2backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…5f63backed No | 67c | 15.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…8565backed No | 78c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.