Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a42f185b32c6984f1166b1cca605a986490b2db8a214c5485caf1cd50ab087a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 54c | 399.68$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.91 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 46c | 249.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.24 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 238.58$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 193.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 35c | 192.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 53c | 185.18$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 165.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 159.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 50c | 156.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 62c | 135.77$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 130.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 125.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 62c | 105.72$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 71c | 100.66$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 100.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 88.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 88.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 48c | 82.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 78.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 17c | 77.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 44c | 68.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 65.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 25c | 62.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 34c | 61.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 48.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…e97abacked Yes | 69c | 47.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 70c | 45.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 75c | 42.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 41.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 40.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 39.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 37.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 36c | 37.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 36.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 35.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…aa1bbacked Yes | 38c | 31.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 31.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2b…74acbacked Yes | 42c | 30.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 28.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…007ebacked Yes | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 65c | 28.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 48c | 24.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 59c | 20.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 74c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4327…288fbacked Yes | 58c | 19.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 15.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.