Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf6b05ded2d4507d63fd7cb56f5efd622773774de25aa4d5556fa21b5e194b0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 607.49$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 40c | 519.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.4 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 25c | 220.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 151.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 59c | 151.46$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 134$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 55c | 125.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 41c | 121.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 67c | 116.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 62c | 112.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 107.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 41c | 105.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 67c | 105.74$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 104.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 31c | 101.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 101.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 99.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 97.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 65c | 95.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 95.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 87.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 81.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…eba4backed No | 64c | 73.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 66.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 46c | 63.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 62c | 61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 55.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 59c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 40c | 50.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 47.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 70c | 47.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 35c | 46.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 28c | 46.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 40c | 45.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 60c | 43.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 24c | 43.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 41.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 33c | 41.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 60c | 41.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…c987backed Yes | 40c | 40.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 39.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 61c | 39.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 29c | 38.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 39c | 32.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 31c | 32.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 44c | 28.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…8b3bbacked No | 73c | 26.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 73c | 25.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 71c | 25.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb496…2657backed No | 74c | 24.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…3405backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 60c | 23.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…bab9backed Yes | 74c | 23.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 22.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb073…54fbbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 60c | 19.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7d…ae9bbacked No | 73c | 18.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 62c | 18.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.