Music · resolved market
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a5a515b72b659b4b799e732445b1aa2e7e65b052746d4cd160b634a035aaee7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc057…239ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,607$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed No | 51c | 1,276$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.57 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 10c | 1,055$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…ce81backed Yes | 38c | 524.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e2…6afcbacked Yes | 45c | 240.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed No | 65c | 204.35$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 25c | 149.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 99.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 74c | 86.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 82.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 47.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 78c | 33.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked Yes | 42c | 32.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed No | 77c | 30.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 58c | 24.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "SWIM - BTS" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of April 11?this page
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of April 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.