Music · resolved market
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc07014ed990d154a1db2ac104dd146484ebe51760b60b90b03cfe982e30011e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc057…239ebacked No | 61c | 3,607$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,214.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 51c | 1,657$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 27c | 1,550$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.5 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…883abacked No | 45c | 1,127$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…92e0backed Yes | 55c | 1,127$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b9…aa71backed No | 38c | 847.34$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 78c | 804.11$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.84 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 25c | 267$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 51c | 229.98$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.79 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 15c | 226.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc199…c67cbacked No | 28c | 163$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46a…a3f0backed No | 18c | 155.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 16c | 128$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…f866backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 123.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked Yes | 28c | 114.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 65c | 99.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 17c | 75.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed No | 43c | 59.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 63c | 57.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 24c | 49.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…6ffebacked Yes | 52c | 47.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 61c | 39.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 70c | 29.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 52c | 28.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 55c | 23.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 70c | 23.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…e3d4backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3294…6db1backed Yes | 50c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c9…477cbacked Yes | 59c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfb…9ebabacked Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of April 11?this page
- Will "SWIM - BTS" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.