TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Stanford Cardinal vs. California Golden Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
California Golden Bearsof Stanford Cardinal, California Golden Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,209
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$132,487

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,209 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93ab…9723backed California Golden Bears54c48,367$26,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,249.278145.7%37 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Stanford Cardinal45c23,826$10,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,809.7112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed California Golden Bears55c16,689$9,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,448.1514654.1%79 W · 67 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Stanford Cardinal46c14,061$6,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,465.981,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Stanford Cardinal46c5,994$2,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,757.241,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Stanford Cardinal46c5,761$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.921,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Stanford Cardinal46c4,348$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0009244.6%41 W · 51 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Stanford Cardinal45c3,081$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.4355840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Stanford Cardinal44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32048855.1%269 W · 219 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ec…81c2backed Stanford Cardinal6c1,887$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.278817%15 W · 73 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Stanford Cardinal42c1,589$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.95,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked California Golden Bears56c1,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5282,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Stanford Cardinal44c1,182$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.9344549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Stanford Cardinal30c1,158$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.6381528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Stanford Cardinal47c1,100$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5179250%46 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed California Golden Bears54c1,025$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.491,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed California Golden Bears59c981.22$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.953,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked California Golden Bears55c964.91$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.823455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed California Golden Bears54c925.92$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.9235147.6%167 W · 184 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Stanford Cardinal40c876.72$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.664,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Stanford Cardinal46c833.4$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.2435243.2%152 W · 200 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked California Golden Bears66c744.64$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.7649345.4%224 W · 269 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed California Golden Bears70c715.99$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.823,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed California Golden Bears53c675.01$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.2574649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Stanford Cardinal46c671.01$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.921,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e3b…4afdbacked Stanford Cardinal46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Stanford Cardinal44c629.16$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.212,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked California Golden Bears53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28216147.2%76 W · 85 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Stanford Cardinal47c550$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.519554.9%107 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Stanford Cardinal47c523.72$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.151,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Stanford Cardinal36c505.67$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.634,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeaf…f14bbacked Stanford Cardinal46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed California Golden Bears54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23091848.9%449 W · 469 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda40…6938backed California Golden Bears55c490$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6f…2390backed California Golden Bears55c460$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49b5…005bbacked Stanford Cardinal46c450$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed California Golden Bears67c370.02$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.965,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed California Golden Bears53c367.93$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.9362140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Stanford Cardinal45c365.27$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7992246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked California Golden Bears54c331.26$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.3834746.1%160 W · 187 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Stanford Cardinal45c329.69$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3614647.9%70 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Stanford Cardinal23c326.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Stanford Cardinal46c326.08$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.960954.5%332 W · 277 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb314…aacbbacked California Golden Bears55c319.82$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.59955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Stanford Cardinal31c318.39$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1717627.8%49 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Stanford Cardinal47c284$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.481,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked California Golden Bears53c253$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.6681453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Stanford Cardinal46c250.07$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0324737.7%93 W · 154 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked California Golden Bears55c241.78$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.814148.9%69 W · 72 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Stanford Cardinal47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Stanford Cardinal47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0373…6d6bbacked Stanford Cardinal46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9210652.8%56 W · 50 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b49…1f54backed California Golden Bears54c199.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Stanford Cardinal10c199.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.573,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Stanford Cardinal46c195.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1650745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Stanford Cardinal47c188.68$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.682,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Stanford Cardinal23c185.05$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1593247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Stanford Cardinal47c179.25$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.259845.9%45 W · 53 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x672a…abb7backed California Golden Bears56c176.2$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+45.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Stanford Cardinal46c173.91$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8022954.1%124 W · 105 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked California Golden Bears53c150.94$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9435646.6%166 W · 190 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed California Golden Bears69c134.84$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.431,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Stanford Cardinal47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5083350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed California Golden Bears54c105.56$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5620051.5%103 W · 97 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed California Golden Bears66c102.46$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.261,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Stanford Cardinal44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4489146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Stanford Cardinal45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.585248.8%416 W · 436 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Stanford Cardinal46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Stanford Cardinal42c85.28$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.872,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Stanford Cardinal29c84.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.164738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Stanford Cardinal46c82.6$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3821937.4%82 W · 137 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed California Golden Bears54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0713565.9%89 W · 46 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Stanford Cardinal46c71.64$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.719442.6%40 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e1…f709backed Stanford Cardinal36c69.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked California Golden Bears55c63.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.643641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed California Golden Bears55c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2764658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3de…fe0ebacked California Golden Bears55c58.15$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.292653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Stanford Cardinal29c57.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.711,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed California Golden Bears53c50.14$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7599045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf01e…aed4backed Stanford Cardinal45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.58646.5%40 W · 46 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked California Golden Bears54c48.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1521850.9%111 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ee…f34ebacked California Golden Bears55c45.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.14560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…6324backed Stanford Cardinal47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-47.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed Stanford Cardinal31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.452353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae3…4dd4backed Stanford Cardinal31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.35060%30 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Stanford Cardinal40c30.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.261,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc676…f35cbacked California Golden Bears54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.88248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed California Golden Bears74c27.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.271,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5425…8b3abacked California Golden Bears54c27.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.553857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Stanford Cardinal46c27.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4716140.4%65 W · 96 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Stanford Cardinal45c26.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.931338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbb…727fbacked Stanford Cardinal44c26.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.494250%21 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed California Golden Bears55c24.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1712054.2%65 W · 55 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0ae…106cbacked California Golden Bears66c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.164050%20 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…2e74backed California Golden Bears54c20.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2219860.1%119 W · 79 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed California Golden Bears57c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.514461.8%89 W · 55 L+0.7wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98fe…bc9ebacked California Golden Bears70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+49%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac79…ff6cbacked California Golden Bears53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.