MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a90abce9e99a3370c46ef8d313bcd59ef90dcbc09a478689ef6b0bc91d7d819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 24c | 9,758$2,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,365.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 76c | 8,508$6,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,041.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 3,978$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.66 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 2,112$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.83 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 1,977$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 932.56$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.7 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 510$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Washington Nationals | 24c | 501$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 422$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 398$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 315.23$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.09 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 126$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 126$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Washington Nationals | 24c | 117.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 102.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Kansas City Royals | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals | 68c | 90.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Kansas City Royals | 74c | 74.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Kansas City Royals | 78c | 63.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 74c | 36.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 36.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbf…d227backed Kansas City Royals | 72c | 35.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 26.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 26.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Kansas City Royals | 77c | 13.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington NationalsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Kansas City Royals vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.