TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Washington Nationalsof Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,617
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,609

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,617 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Washington Nationals64c950.55$606 inWon+$344.551,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals33c756.13$248 inLost-$248.4411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals26c530.42$136 inLost-$136.2212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals74c354.44$262 inWon+$92.028,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Kansas City Royals25c222.88$57 inLost-$56.712,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Kansas City Royals69c144.93$100 inLost-$10025066.4%166 W · 84 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals71c108.25$77 inWon+$31.123,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe14a…62bebacked Washington Nationals77c73.01$56 inWon+$16.715145.7%69 W · 82 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Washington Nationals78c54.1$42 inWon+$11.8327652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Kansas City Royals20c51.54$10 inLost-$10.3144345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Kansas City Royals38c50$19 inLost-$18.92,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Kansas City Royals38c41.05$16 inLost-$15.677836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Washington Nationals78c27.71$21 inWon+$6.221,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Washington Nationals67c16.56$11 inWon+$5.420852.9%110 W · 98 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed Washington Nationals79c15$12 inWon+$3.1111255.4%62 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.