TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,984
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,984 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals36c1,645$592 inWon+$1,053.044,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals64c1,000$640 inLost-$6405,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ce…ddd7backed Washington Nationals56c739.91$414 inLost-$414.3512857%73 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kansas City Royals44c342.29$151 inWon+$191.281,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Washington Nationals58c301.72$175 inLost-$17563943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals64c293.85$188 inLost-$188.068,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals36c254.89$92 inLost-$91.942,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals6c237.66$14 inLost-$14.2612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals64c232.44$149 inLost-$148.762,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Kansas City Royals44c224$99 inWon+$125.441,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Kansas City Royals54c148.15$80 inWon+$68.1568942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals64c124$79 inLost-$79.362,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals42c108.34$46 inWon+$62.8411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals44c81.2$36 inWon+$45.475,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals44c81.18$36 inWon+$45.463,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Washington Nationals49c55$27 inLost-$26.8687370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals45c30$14 inLost-$13.58,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Kansas City Royals55c20.65$11 inWon+$9.396,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Kansas City Royals67c15.45$10 inWon+$5.126063.8%166 W · 94 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.