MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72f995a1fbe4fc4a80fcec156bf334ae388ee262a6b46c1971b9e1bc56395a85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 50c | 30,675$15,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,337.38 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c2…7b5abacked Over | 50c | 15,225$7,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,612.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 50c | 6,305$3,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.28 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 3,224$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 50c | 2,030$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.23 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 50c | 1,878$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.89 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 1,488$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.41 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 26c | 1,356$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.26 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 1,231$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 1,053$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 46c | 988$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.48 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 800$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 50c | 710.5$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.25 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 50c | 705.18$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.59 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 70c | 505.49$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 53c | 467.9$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 450$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 53c | 420$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 42c | 379$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.43 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 50c | 320$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 53c | 313.21$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.21 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 303.24$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 48c | 201.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…3535backed Over | 55c | 186.92$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 59c | 175$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.25 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 37c | 130.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 49c | 126$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 52c | 114$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 48c | 109$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Under | 58c | 93.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 51c | 91.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 49c | 60.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 53c | 60.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 33c | 56.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 54.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 26c | 50.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 47c | 45.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 51c | 42.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…6659backed Under | 47c | 39.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 60c | 37.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 50c | 34.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Under | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 94 | 73.4%69 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 61c | 30.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 50c | 30.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Under | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 68c | 29.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…1d65backed Over | 50c | 27.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f4…918fbacked Under | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Under | 52c | 21.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 75c | 20.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 20.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…cb46backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington NationalsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Kansas City Royals vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.