MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x308cd8becebdc2af2c212e114ea097938175dd25748133af62c3ff3bc82b119e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 54c | 2,372$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.79 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 23c | 1,276$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.4 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 74c | 1,012$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 75c | 861.04$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 41c | 752.27$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 23c | 642.87$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.76 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 23c | 637.78$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.69 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 29c | 591.94$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.05 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 51c | 554.31$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.12 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 76c | 529$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.23 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…0a3fbacked Over | 49c | 502.8$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.4 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 35c | 306.8$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 43c | 241.02$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Under | 44c | 225$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 76c | 184.32$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.24 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 184$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 74c | 151.28$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 26c | 151.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.95 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 24c | 145.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…f5d4backed Over | 37c | 143.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 56c | 142.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Under | 45c | 136.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 23c | 129$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 49c | 114.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…203abacked Over | 38c | 113.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 44c | 88.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 33c | 75.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbf…d227backed Over | 46c | 71.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 54c | 65.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 66c | 61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed Over | 37c | 60.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 46c | 60.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 49c | 56.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…a7a7backed Over | 37c | 56.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 36c | 54.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 57c | 49.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 44c | 49.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 46c | 41.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 44c | 36.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 67c | 36.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 36c | 28.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 63c | 24.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 70c | 23.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 63c | 21.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 64c | 20.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 74c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington NationalsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Kansas City Royals vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.