MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52b1cf882ba83b95d0ecbc54cc2f06f3607fa757bdab067601b4b22c35949fce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 54c | 6,788$3,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,665.49 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 6,461$3,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,157.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…248bbacked Under | 46c | 6,264$2,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,382.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Over | 48c | 6,147$2,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,969.07 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 56c | 3,549$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.15 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 2,406$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 1,584$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 40c | 1,529$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.95 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 1,390$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 44c | 1,353$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.68 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 55c | 916.36$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 751$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 732.8$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.17 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 60c | 526.64$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.46 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 27c | 415.49$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 410.4$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.9 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 45c | 399.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 46c | 303.61$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.95 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 58c | 275.86$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 43c | 269.42$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.57 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 223.36$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 50c | 151$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 11c | 147$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Over | 55c | 134.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 128$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 49c | 100.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2821…9534backed Under | 73c | 93.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 43c | 91.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 54c | 90.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 45c | 87.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 86.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 57c | 67.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…2c66backed Over | 64c | 65.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 64.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7be8…0f50backed Under | 46c | 62.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked Under | 46c | 55.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +10.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 53c | 52.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 51.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 51c | 51.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 35c | 46.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 46c | 43.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Under | 51c | 42.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae8…2511backed Under | 44c | 40.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 46c | 37.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 54c | 36.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 36.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Under | 45c | 35.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 43c | 34.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Over | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 32.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 29.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176a…4ac5backed Under | 48c | 29.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 55c | 29.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 55c | 28.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 58c | 26.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbf…d227backed Over | 70c | 25.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 57c | 25.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 61c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington NationalsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Kansas City Royals vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.