NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aa20dbba7460c754b8b444c5daf6e1fe33afa18339ed876837255e727a2a125
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wildof Avalanche, Wild
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,254 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Avalanche | 41c | 2,816$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Wild | 59c | 1,817$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.38 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Wild | 59c | 1,199$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.58 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Avalanche | 39c | 771.63$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.93 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Avalanche | 41c | 590$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.7 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Wild | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Wild | 60c | 479.96$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.69 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…d4d3backed Avalanche | 45c | 396.48$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.58 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Wild | 60c | 371.67$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.67 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Wild | 64c | 354.39$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Avalanche | 40c | 280$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe01d…a45cbacked Avalanche | 41c | 273.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Avalanche | 34c | 260$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Avalanche | 15c | 236.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Wild | 49c | 223.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.13 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Wild | 61c | 196.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Wild | 58c | 166.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…48e3backed Wild | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Avalanche | 36c | 148.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Wild | 59c | 142$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Wild | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Wild | 60c | 113.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Wild | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…091cbacked Avalanche | 40c | 92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…f12abacked Wild | 61c | 91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Wild | 61c | 83.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Avalanche | 45c | 76.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche | 40c | 65.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Wild | 60c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Wild | 57c | 58.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Wild | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Wild | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed Wild | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Wild | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…76a9backed Avalanche | 42c | 35.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Avalanche | 41c | 35.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Wild | 60c | 34.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Avalanche | 40c | 33.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Avalanche | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49d9…86febacked Avalanche | 41c | 30.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Wild | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Wild | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Wild | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Wild | 58c | 23.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Wild | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Wild | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Wild vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5Over won
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Under won
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Under won
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.