NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ab19fb322b99d89db390ebb173e4569b5a5fb4e25c7f53eea741336d6196b5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,203 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c87…c77cbacked Under | 1c | 1,446$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 1,142$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.55 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Under | 1c | 1,136$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 18c | 1,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…65fabacked Under | 10c | 906.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 28c | 599$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.43 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Under | 17c | 594.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 18c | 324.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 34c | 234.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.91 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 66c | 229.54$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 225.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Under | 19c | 200.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 44c | 189.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 25c | 122.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381a…f63dbacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 19c | 62.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 23c | 62.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 65c | 59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 51c | 57.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 37c | 53.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 41c | 48.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Over | 68c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 60c | 37.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 37.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 66c | 36.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 31c | 34.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Under | 58c | 31.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Under | 49c | 30.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…454fbacked Under | 58c | 30.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…56c6backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Under | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 65c | 22.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9666…2af8backed Over | 57c | 21.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Wild won
- Wild vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Under won
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Under won
- Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.