TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dplus KIAof DN SOOPers, Dplus KIA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$496,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$581,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $496,154 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc75a…1ab2backed DN SOOPers0c73,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2707869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a4…a73ebacked DN SOOPers1c42,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230651.5%1 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-96.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed DN SOOPers19c23,626$4,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,489.013540%14 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked DN SOOPers18c21,000$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,779.936541.5%27 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed DN SOOPers22c13,815$2,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,980.161,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed DN SOOPers16c13,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1201,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed DN SOOPers14c11,294$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.1551146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8f…de20backed DN SOOPers19c10,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90012652.4%66 W · 60 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed DN SOOPers17c10,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70017133.9%58 W · 113 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked DN SOOPers16c10,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60030945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked DN SOOPers13c9,432$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.541,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked DN SOOPers14c7,027$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.9857246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked DN SOOPers17c5,832$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.531,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed DN SOOPers6c5,829$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.171,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed DN SOOPers9c5,426$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.771,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed DN SOOPers19c5,200$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98824147.3%114 W · 127 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed Dplus KIA79c5,063$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.2951348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed DN SOOPers19c4,188$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.692842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed Dplus KIA78c3,868$3,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.9840370.2%283 W · 120 L+31.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+9.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed DN SOOPers18c3,733$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.9385836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked DN SOOPers18c3,044$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.3649541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed DN SOOPers15c3,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45082953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed DN SOOPers18c2,996$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55056432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd46…6956backed DN SOOPers2c2,862$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked DN SOOPers16c2,698$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42575630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked DN SOOPers14c2,255$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.621,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed DN SOOPers19c2,019$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.0585442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked DN SOOPers18c2,001$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.911,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fc3…6c57backed Dplus KIA78c2,000$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4504963.3%31 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed Dplus KIA78c1,922$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.9529846.6%139 W · 159 L-19.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed DN SOOPers14c1,756$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.842,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked DN SOOPers15c1,667$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25035353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed DN SOOPers19c1,618$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.41631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f8d…24dfbacked DN SOOPers15c1,505$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.36958%40 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked DN SOOPers15c1,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2252,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeda6…84c5backed DN SOOPers16c1,450$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.51735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked DN SOOPers11c1,124$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.682,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4e…9516backed DN SOOPers17c1,122$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.142437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed DN SOOPers18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked DN SOOPers23c1,000$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22540145.4%182 W · 219 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Dplus KIA80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20032457.7%187 W · 137 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb97b…87dcbacked DN SOOPers3c1,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2714654.8%80 W · 66 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed DN SOOPers14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed DN SOOPers16c999.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked DN SOOPers18c999$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.821,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d29…8e90backed Dplus KIA77c956.86$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.0819559%115 W · 80 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed DN SOOPers6c899.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.851,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed DN SOOPers22c880.84$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.782,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed DN SOOPers16c807.45$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.532,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc177…7fbbbacked DN SOOPers14c801.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7816429.9%49 W · 115 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fab…e336backed DN SOOPers10c769.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.510044%44 W · 56 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab92…19e5backed DN SOOPers19c730.44$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49a6…a658backed DN SOOPers21c710.05$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050051.6%258 W · 242 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed DN SOOPers18c646.22$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2474250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf344…13ffbacked Dplus KIA79c645.35$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.3528166.5%187 W · 94 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f41…b387backed DN SOOPers22c600$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1325554.5%30 W · 25 L+7.4wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+36.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked DN SOOPers13c599.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.522,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02f0…c55dbacked DN SOOPers18c552.29$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9911330.1%34 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff8a…0c39backed DN SOOPers18c549.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003312.1%4 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-72%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed DN SOOPers5c540$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2875738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked DN SOOPers3c519.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.645937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae4…e4a2backed DN SOOPers19c518.25$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.471346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+49.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x232b…8bd9backed DN SOOPers12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed DN SOOPers20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa143…586cbacked DN SOOPers4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026937.5%101 W · 168 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d71…8da4backed DN SOOPers14c499.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7041343.6%180 W · 233 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed DN SOOPers13c490.34$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8517136.3%62 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6cd…f05dbacked DN SOOPers21c470.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011153.2%59 W · 52 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed DN SOOPers17c465.37$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.191,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Dplus KIA78c448.72$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.7274949.7%372 W · 377 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb941…b56bbacked Dplus KIA78c442$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.0431646.5%147 W · 169 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb7…7216backed DN SOOPers24c415.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.722015%3 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-64.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed DN SOOPers14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610736.4%39 W · 68 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed DN SOOPers9c382.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.861,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked DN SOOPers21c375.4$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.841,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaed5…981dbacked DN SOOPers14c371.43$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5244245.9%203 W · 239 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeba1…838bbacked Dplus KIA79c358$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1812270.5%86 W · 36 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked DN SOOPers14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Dplus KIA80c353.37$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6785746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed DN SOOPers8c348$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8415632.7%51 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed DN SOOPers16c344.25$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0838835.3%137 W · 251 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f01…3691backed Dplus KIA80c334.48$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick74cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddc4…0270backed DN SOOPers15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026639.5%105 W · 161 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…1438backed Dplus KIA79c331.49$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.613444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed DN SOOPers16c321.24$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7737548%180 W · 195 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed DN SOOPers22c318.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Dplus KIA79c315.5$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.649461.3%303 W · 191 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed DN SOOPers16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ab4…f836backed Dplus KIA80c312.5$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.58043.8%35 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbf7…06acbacked DN SOOPers17c307.26$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.326347.6%30 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed DN SOOPers15c300$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.841439.6%164 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34f2…3bc2backed Dplus KIA79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6353047.5%252 W · 278 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Dplus KIA78c299.99$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6663646.9%298 W · 338 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed DN SOOPers15c289.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4333237.7%125 W · 207 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Dplus KIA79c276.9$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.151,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked DN SOOPers19c274.22$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3858420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x99ef…184dbacked DN SOOPers22c270.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017953.1%95 W · 84 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3329…6c52backed Dplus KIA78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.414052.5%21 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6926…152dbacked Dplus KIA78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4184360.1%507 W · 336 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed DN SOOPers13c250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.594144.6%420 W · 521 L-2.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.