TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dplus KIAof Dplus KIA, DN SOOPers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$215,632
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$269,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,632 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Dplus KIA60c25,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00012664.3%81 W · 45 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40ea…832fbacked Dplus KIA59c21,176$12,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,689.3320339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked DN SOOPers40c20,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0001,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed DN SOOPers41c20,000$8,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,199.9923351.1%119 W · 114 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed DN SOOPers42c18,039$7,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,539.3459450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked DN SOOPers37c15,316$5,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,739.751,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed DN SOOPers41c15,000$6,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,149.991,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Dplus KIA59c14,728$8,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,038.4838235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Dplus KIA60c10,049$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.4425447.6%121 W · 133 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Dplus KIA59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,099.9891854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Dplus KIA62c7,000$4,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,67067552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Dplus KIA58c5,055$2,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,123.0752750.5%266 W · 261 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked DN SOOPers40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9514549.7%72 W · 73 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Dplus KIA61c4,957$3,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.3744550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed DN SOOPers41c4,871$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.097958.2%46 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked Dplus KIA58c3,500$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4703732.4%12 W · 25 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-33.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Dplus KIA59c3,400$2,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3947339.7%29 W · 44 L-9.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-26.8%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed DN SOOPers41c3,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.9848440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed DN SOOPers41c2,730$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.431,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed DN SOOPers41c2,666$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.1154353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9867…ea53backed DN SOOPers42c2,215$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.2613752.6%72 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed Dplus KIA59c2,204$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.737758.4%45 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f49…463abacked Dplus KIA60c2,200$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88020045%90 W · 110 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b5…c0aebacked Dplus KIA58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8407042.9%30 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6799…9cc2backed Dplus KIA58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+72.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Dplus KIA59c1,506$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.4632457.7%187 W · 137 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed DN SOOPers41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.9910648.1%51 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed DN SOOPers41c1,439$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.9444451.8%230 W · 214 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac42…60d1backed Dplus KIA60c1,363$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.27626.3%20 W · 56 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ba8…d72bbacked Dplus KIA59c1,356$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.9917659.7%105 W · 71 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Dplus KIA60c1,299$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.711,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb627…2d13backed Dplus KIA62c1,290$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.3251552.6%271 W · 244 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Dplus KIA79c1,263$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.526844%118 W · 150 L-37.1wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-26.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed DN SOOPers41c1,207$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50049847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Dplus KIA59c1,200$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49211753%62 W · 55 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked DN SOOPers37c1,155$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.591,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4ab…13a1backed Dplus KIA60c1,107$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.81735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2f0…3206backed Dplus KIA60c1,080$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43212647.6%60 W · 66 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked DN SOOPers21c1,046$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9448844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5217…ec29backed Dplus KIA59c1,003$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.8921154.5%115 W · 96 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0636…c529backed DN SOOPers45c1,000$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.1811249.1%55 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked DN SOOPers41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41089050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b0a…fe3abacked Dplus KIA61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3909738.1%37 W · 60 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a4b…4a75backed Dplus KIA61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3908751.7%45 W · 42 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21df…7078backed Dplus KIA58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+36.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Dplus KIA58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42047455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Dplus KIA60c999.99$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40566059.8%395 W · 265 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Dplus KIA64c907.81$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.012,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4e…9516backed DN SOOPers19c904.34$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.822437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Dplus KIA60c895.92$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.3726645.9%122 W · 144 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed DN SOOPers40c800$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32037647.9%180 W · 196 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked DN SOOPers41c749.99$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.58652.3%45 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9de…7310backed Dplus KIA59c700$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2871650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa094…3f07backed DN SOOPers43c700$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked Dplus KIA58c700$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29414352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Dplus KIA61c670$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.91,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe92d…ebe2backed Dplus KIA57c646.31$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.92450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Dplus KIA60c622.83$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.1311567.8%78 W · 37 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Dplus KIA59c607.46$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.061,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Dplus KIA60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26c6…1e14backed DN SOOPers41c550$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.528350.2%142 W · 141 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x321d…d0acbacked Dplus KIA61c530$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.712462.9%78 W · 46 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f6d…71b4backed Dplus KIA59c508.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.474751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe450…a40abacked Dplus KIA65c507.69$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.6912263.1%77 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed DN SOOPers40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Dplus KIA60c450$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18025640.6%104 W · 152 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed Dplus KIA60c416.67$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6743640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed DN SOOPers18c416.14$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765330.2%16 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed DN SOOPers42c407.52$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.167558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked DN SOOPers26c400$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10411839%46 W · 72 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Dplus KIA60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed DN SOOPers41c395.06$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9737548%180 W · 195 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Dplus KIA66c373.41$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.4150956.2%286 W · 223 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed Dplus KIA58c358.62$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.6224656.1%138 W · 108 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked DN SOOPers34c356.53$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.221,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed Dplus KIA61c340$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.67452.7%39 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc20…8c98backed Dplus KIA60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3310253.9%55 W · 47 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Dplus KIA60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3323672%170 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa11…e3c0backed Dplus KIA61c325.91$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.917335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb700…5a62backed Dplus KIA60c315.52$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.219857.1%56 W · 42 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed DN SOOPers42c301.55$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1517136.3%62 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Dplus KIA58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12686649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b5a…7070backed Dplus KIA61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11714562.1%90 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd1…9249backed Dplus KIA60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12017744.6%79 W · 98 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Dplus KIA60c266.67$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6765063.2%411 W · 239 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe49d…c3dbbacked Dplus KIA60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10063247.6%301 W · 331 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Dplus KIA61c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.579653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf29…834cbacked DN SOOPers40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008253.7%44 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed DN SOOPers41c245.54$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6727050.7%137 W · 133 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab2a…30edbacked DN SOOPers41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012347.2%58 W · 65 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Dplus KIA63c239.58$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.5836752%191 W · 176 L-18.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked DN SOOPers42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020546.3%95 W · 110 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Dplus KIA60c230$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9228852.1%150 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x602d…51a6backed Dplus KIA59c193.78$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb7…7216backed Dplus KIA60c186.67$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.672015%3 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-64.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Dplus KIA59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4979864.3%513 W · 285 L+32.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed Dplus KIA60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.678440.5%34 W · 50 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec6d…804bbacked Dplus KIA60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6716647%78 W · 88 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500f…4c28backed Dplus KIA60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6718849.5%93 W · 95 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71cf…10fdbacked Dplus KIA57c165.22$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.043429.4%10 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-29.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.