Mls · resolved market
Will Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0af8c5532f93a1eca46c53e64dab382aef0f4df0b7efcefc0d4667c0ca949d5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,009 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 23c | 22,642$5,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,145.72 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 12,718$9,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,404.04 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 69c | 9,052$6,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,814.77 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…bad0backed Yes | 0c | 6,089$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 33c | 3,204$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.64 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 2,696$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.53 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 75c | 2,638$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.75 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 78c | 2,206$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.32 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 79c | 1,821$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.06 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked No | 71c | 1,487$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 72c | 1,231$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.26 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 72c | 1,013$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.7 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +5.0wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 29c | 977.18$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.38 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 966.23$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.97 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 71c | 900$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Yes | 30c | 762.77$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.83 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 757.24$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.6 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 29c | 615.77$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 586$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.42 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 71c | 563.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 32c | 542.55$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.81 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 519.99$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.98 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 71c | 492.8$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 30c | 492.04$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.1 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 71c | 465.46$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.42 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 29c | 464.13$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 70c | 388.8$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 62c | 367.31$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.75 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Yes | 30c | 310$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 279.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 80c | 277.83$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eca…969abacked Yes | 26c | 230.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 29c | 230$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…3678backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 71c | 149.7$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 71c | 99.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 28c | 91.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed9d…444abacked No | 70c | 74.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 56.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 31c | 52.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a9…6bb5backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed No | 73c | 49.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Yes | 30c | 48.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 24c | 48.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 30c | 42.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Yes | 30c | 39.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No | 70c | 37.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef8…7445backed Yes | 29c | 34.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…d02bbacked No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed No | 76c | 32.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 64c | 29.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 71c | 25.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 61c | 20.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed No | 76c | 17.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked No | 66c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed No | 72c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46a…3656backed No | 72c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6665…4776backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.