Mls · resolved market
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10d2d7f4707578d16827d635e88bdac5f38586997728fd0361109394892bc34d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,103 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 14c | 12,061$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.36 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 39c | 7,822$3,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,078.81 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 38c | 4,693$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.75 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 60c | 3,796$2,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.42 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 9c | 2,493$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.55 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 3c | 2,195$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…178dbacked No | 60c | 1,842$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.69 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa79…f645backed Yes | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 714.5$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.01 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 39c | 708.68$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.3 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 685.82$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.13 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 61c | 577.84$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.36 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 61c | 509$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.51 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…1564backed No | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked No | 78c | 430$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…6112backed No | 77c | 380.21$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 66c | 319.63$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.67 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 32c | 319.43$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b41…764cbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 37c | 259$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 67c | 205.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed No | 61c | 175$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 61c | 175$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Yes | 33c | 166$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c38…13b1backed Yes | 39c | 163.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 24c | 156.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed No | 61c | 140$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 61c | 125$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 61c | 125$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 70c | 111.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c04…a5c1backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…a0f5backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 65c | 86.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 44c | 79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…0901backed Yes | 39c | 72.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 68.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked No | 62c | 62.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…bad0backed No | 57c | 52.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…26efbacked No | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 64c | 50.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 80c | 49.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Yes | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Yes | 38c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 29c | 34.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba6…2a7ebacked Yes | 42c | 33.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 43c | 30.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 42c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa476…0515backed Yes | 43c | 25.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…8c31backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 61c | 20.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…3ee6backed No | 61c | 19.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9094…dcabbacked No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…dcf5backed No | 63c | 16.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed No | 62c | 16.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 64c | 15.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 77c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
- Will Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.