Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b12ca0a894611d21fa78bf455ab680c67c975672d3c20dd6b7ce31583d141d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 5,420$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad3…6871backed Yes | 37c | 1,661$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 1c | 1,420$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,184$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e61…e2bebacked Yes | 33c | 631.29$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 468.62$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 33c | 453.41$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.21 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 25c | 437.7$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 431.04$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 4c | 380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 315.51$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 315$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 221.79$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 203.15$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 32c | 165.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 33c | 159$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 37c | 157.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed No | 68c | 142$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 141$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 130$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 120.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 103.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 65c | 87.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 87.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 17c | 75.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 70.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 36c | 64.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 35c | 64.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 34c | 63.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 63.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 34c | 58.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 32c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb6…e094backed Yes | 35c | 56.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 54.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 67c | 51.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 49.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 49.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 78c | 49.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 48.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 32c | 47.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 46.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 67c | 40.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…45c3backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 69c | 38.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 36.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 33c | 34.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…7034backed No | 67c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 35c | 30.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…ce1cbacked Yes | 35c | 30.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 29.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 66c | 28.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb6…5b35backed No | 66c | 25.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…b551backed No | 66c | 23.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 66c | 23.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 64c | 21.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 64c | 21.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 21.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 20.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 63c | 19.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 19.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 64c | 17.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 13.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.