Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa71791f6a0e0bf5fa93acf955033b3e8c89446e6ed86f0b9c55a33d9911ecf25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 530.24$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 33c | 431.23$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.14 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 406.57$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.3 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 328.4$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.43 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 282.75$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 269.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 265.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…a5a7backed No | 5c | 245.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 43c | 241.79$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 221.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 7c | 142.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 141.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 141$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…7a71backed No | 78c | 114.38$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 111.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 108.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 46c | 95.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 68.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 41c | 64.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb6…e094backed Yes | 39c | 57.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 80c | 54.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 54c | 52.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 49.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 45.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 35c | 40.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 65c | 39.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 32.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 47c | 31.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 58c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 51c | 24.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 21.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 21.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 20.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 20.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 19.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.