Champions League · resolved market
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b3e11204a5c899402c19f4726942809cb5a9d3a7b712165531dec05001863c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Münchenof FC Bayern München, Club Brugge KV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked FC Bayern München | 50c | 3,576$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Club Brugge KV | 48c | 3,140$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.38 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…ef6abacked Club Brugge KV | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Club Brugge KV | 48c | 2,704$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.85 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked FC Bayern München | 52c | 2,700$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -9.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Club Brugge KV | 48c | 1,896$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.81 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Club Brugge KV | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Bayern München | 73c | 892.99$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.84 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Club Brugge KV | 50c | 666$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…ed83backed FC Bayern München | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed FC Bayern München | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed FC Bayern München | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Club Brugge KV | 53c | 408.95$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.1 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Club Brugge KV | 47c | 279.04$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.15 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked FC Bayern München | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed FC Bayern München | 52c | 244.23$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed FC Bayern München | 52c | 225$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…8c98backed FC Bayern München | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed FC Bayern München | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 254 | 50%127 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed FC Bayern München | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked FC Bayern München | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…a925backed FC Bayern München | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed FC Bayern München | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed FC Bayern München | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Club Brugge KV | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Club Brugge KV | 49c | 79.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70f…a504backed FC Bayern München | 51c | 79.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed FC Bayern München | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…cb5cbacked FC Bayern München | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed FC Bayern München | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed FC Bayern München | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Club Brugge KV | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked FC Bayern München | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Club Brugge KV | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked FC Bayern München | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed FC Bayern München | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffcb…65febacked FC Bayern München | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb3…5874backed FC Bayern München | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…f2bbbacked FC Bayern München | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed FC Bayern München | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…4517backed FC Bayern München | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…b95dbacked FC Bayern München | 52c | 26.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0a2dbacked FC Bayern München | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)this page
- FC Bayern München vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.