TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs OG - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OGof Nigma Galaxy, OG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$402,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$489,039

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $402,229 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed OG51c100,784$51,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,542.411,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fff…265cbacked OG67c34,252$22,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,281.13234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-24.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Nigma Galaxy50c29,800$14,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,900.0123435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed Nigma Galaxy41c24,426$9,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,950.3921155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nigma Galaxy41c23,236$9,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,492.7271143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Nigma Galaxy49c23,229$11,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,311.5289341.5%371 W · 522 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked Nigma Galaxy49c21,930$10,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,740.138847.7%42 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Nigma Galaxy48c13,418$6,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,440.4140051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked OG51c13,056$6,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,363.4450347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed OG52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80012348%59 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Nigma Galaxy48c9,819$4,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,75269644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Nigma Galaxy50c8,636$4,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3291,19759.2%709 W · 488 L+63.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2929…1dd0backed Nigma Galaxy54c8,237$4,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,437.1816553.3%88 W · 77 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Nigma Galaxy55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.9811953.8%64 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2931…7b81backed OG65c4,787$3,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.0918560.5%112 W · 73 L+12.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy36c4,666$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.321,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked Nigma Galaxy22c4,545$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012141.3%50 W · 71 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Nigma Galaxy50c4,495$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,24031936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked OG62c3,249$2,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.6619456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed OG54c3,076$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.9818551.4%95 W · 90 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Nigma Galaxy63c3,000$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.3137655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked OG53c2,916$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.7250850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed OG67c2,546$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.722,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nigma Galaxy38c2,393$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.111,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked OG54c2,251$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.5217965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f42…1f72backed OG50c2,006$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.6431865.1%207 W · 111 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed OG68c2,003$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.2251140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Nigma Galaxy47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.9941944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed Nigma Galaxy43c1,984$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85020642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Nigma Galaxy46c1,930$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.221,17943.1%508 W · 671 L+41.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Nigma Galaxy33c1,818$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006352.4%33 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc186…e96ebacked Nigma Galaxy33c1,818$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003850%19 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde24…4dedbacked OG49c1,747$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.319853%105 W · 93 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Nigma Galaxy48c1,600$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.0756949%279 W · 290 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed OG48c1,599$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.9753652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Nigma Galaxy33c1,515$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.912255.7%68 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Nigma Galaxy33c1,512$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49916055.6%89 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Nigma Galaxy33c1,494$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.9589749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked Nigma Galaxy37c1,491$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.2428251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Nigma Galaxy36c1,479$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.4150749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Nigma Galaxy46c1,466$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.1660349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Nigma Galaxy49c1,389$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.7347457.4%272 W · 202 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3452…1ba0backed Nigma Galaxy48c1,350$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.2218351.9%95 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed OG56c1,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.110651.9%55 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed OG45c1,194$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.788539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked OG52c1,179$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.954037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Nigma Galaxy31c1,099$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.9347748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed OG42c1,097$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.3220233.2%67 W · 135 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37a8…2806backed Nigma Galaxy45c1,090$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed OG56c1,080$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.6690753.7%487 W · 420 L+50.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3167…32a2backed OG57c1,053$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.6312151.2%62 W · 59 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Nigma Galaxy33c1,042$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.1468649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Nigma Galaxy33c1,026$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.7950353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nigma Galaxy44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44010050%50 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Nigma Galaxy49c1,000$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4881,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Nigma Galaxy44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44044149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Nigma Galaxy41c972.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd12d…f0dbbacked Nigma Galaxy52c964.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014956.4%84 W · 65 L+0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91b9…889fbacked OG51c955.32$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.998644.2%38 W · 48 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed OG68c903.9$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.6546664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc043…eb1bbacked Nigma Galaxy26c899.99$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2343145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea58…0308backed Nigma Galaxy46c866$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.363641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Nigma Galaxy18c848.97$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5677941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Nigma Galaxy57c844.51$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.3761745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Nigma Galaxy43c830.3$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.2165647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Nigma Galaxy25c785$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19532549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed OG40c753.58$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.1510537.1%39 W · 66 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed OG54c740.74$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.7430356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Nigma Galaxy50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35066648.6%324 W · 342 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf897…8453backed Nigma Galaxy47c618.38$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.648146.9%38 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x749f…6be1backed OG49c611.26$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.488151.9%42 W · 39 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Nigma Galaxy40c600$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.523561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Nigma Galaxy50c598.54$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.279935.4%35 W · 64 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d6…6bf4backed OG55c585.86$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.8613453.7%72 W · 62 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Nigma Galaxy22c545.84$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6445352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked OG51c500$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24788166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9417…8440backed Nigma Galaxy33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1659455.3%52 W · 42 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked Nigma Galaxy50c493.88$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.943330.3%10 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Nigma Galaxy25c488$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12210544.8%47 W · 58 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed OG50c485.88$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.9425935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Nigma Galaxy44c454.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010853.7%58 W · 50 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa226…edadbacked OG45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.4411444.7%51 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Nigma Galaxy47c441$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20712345.5%56 W · 67 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Nigma Galaxy23c432.35$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1937146.4%172 W · 199 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad42…6031backed Nigma Galaxy33c430.12$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.948648.8%42 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked OG59c423.73$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.7331953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf072…d897backed OG50c402$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20212046.7%56 W · 64 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked OG78c400$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8810766.4%71 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked OG55c400$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.2791756.5%518 W · 399 L+79.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed OG53c399.99$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.822663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked OG77c399.99$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9279159.4%470 W · 321 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24cc…0927backed OG52c363.83$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.648446.4%39 W · 45 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked OG55c363.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.7348843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked OG60c343.84$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.51,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe50…b05cbacked OG73c339.21$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.041266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Nigma Galaxy34c335.35$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9296245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked OG66c333.32$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.11,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed OG79c329.99$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.365625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed OG63c311.03$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.1137252.7%196 W · 176 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d4d…2008backed OG51c302.72$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.579054.4%49 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.