Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b779e6d1ca9a08684df5658adc232b7f82aae9bfee2ec21af0a3175596f155e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 398.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 64c | 385.45$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.25 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 300$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 265.42$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8990…38adbacked Yes | 45c | 264.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 258.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 218.81$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 60c | 195.77$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 191.01$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 79c | 189.64$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.19 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 42c | 147.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 51c | 133.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 52c | 124.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 119.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 53c | 113.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 48c | 111$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 103.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 103.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 102.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 100.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 41c | 97.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 91.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 82.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 76c | 82.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 76.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 52c | 74.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 22c | 72.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 69.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 43c | 65.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 18c | 61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 26c | 58.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 47c | 53.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 46c | 49.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 48c | 46.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 48c | 45.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 55c | 45.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 64c | 44.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 34c | 42.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 40.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 56c | 35.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 35.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…e0f3backed Yes | 57c | 35.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 78c | 33.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 31.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 61c | 31.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 59c | 30.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 30.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 41c | 28.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 67c | 26.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 48c | 25.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 54c | 23.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 59c | 22.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…dfddbacked No | 50c | 21.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…2598backed Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…a1c1backed No | 61c | 17.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 73c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.