Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe717092eab62ae7ceb2774cc665cfe1c399ab6f7ba2804268b71171b3721469c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 669.99$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.51 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 38c | 509.21$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.09 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 449.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 398.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 69c | 327$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.85 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 277.35$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 269.93$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 34c | 198.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 184.05$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 175$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 159$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 158.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.23 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 59c | 151.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 142.96$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 70c | 142.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 71c | 140.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 134.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 128.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 126.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 125.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 58c | 125$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 121.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed No | 77c | 116.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 30c | 110.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 109.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 22c | 102.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 102.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 77c | 96.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 45c | 95.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 38c | 90.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 31c | 89.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…1f29backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 72c | 84.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 70c | 71.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 69.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…4aeebacked No | 66c | 65.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 72c | 59.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 57.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 25c | 57.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 54.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 32c | 51.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 43c | 51.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 59c | 50.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 49.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 42c | 49.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 49.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 68c | 48.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked Yes | 27c | 47.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 33c | 46.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 43.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 58c | 42.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 61c | 34.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 44c | 33.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 46c | 31.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 35c | 30.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 69c | 29.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 68c | 28.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 80c | 27.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…7948backed No | 46c | 27.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…bba7backed Yes | 79c | 26.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 26.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 70c | 25.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 59c | 25.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…2598backed Yes | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 22.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 21.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe260…3f01backed No | 69c | 17.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 69c | 17.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked Yes | 80c | 13.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.