Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b842caaf8b64eb3ee847ca02d6538fb84391245d36cabe0f5ad071fdd939868
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,370,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,620,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,370,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed No | 0c | 187,026$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.79 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48cb…9f12backed No | 1c | 157,661$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 1c | 74,279$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.26 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bac…8684backed No | 0c | 73,000$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7493…c5babacked No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…d90bbacked No | 0c | 49,851$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 1c | 45,307$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.96 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…057cbacked No | 1c | 20,177$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb7…6d16backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -79%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…a061backed No | 0c | 15,986$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 1c | 14,469$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 0c | 13,856$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d79…58abbacked No | 0c | 12,411$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed No | 1c | 10,283$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed No | 0c | 9,966$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked No | 0c | 7,037$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88a…7e26backed No | 1c | 3,609$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5312…1adabacked No | 1c | 3,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…e853backed No | 2c | 3,495$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2236…6e0cbacked No | 1c | 1,641$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 5c | 1,638$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5939…4701backed No | 8c | 1,612$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed No | 3c | 1,536$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 4c | 1,313$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 4c | 1,225$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e8…9e0ebacked No | 1c | 1,207$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ba…3954backed No | 2c | 695.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x545f…66dbbacked Yes | 72c | 620.95$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 4c | 584.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 498.86$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 2c | 492.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1590…000dbacked No | 2c | 490.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 43c | 487.91$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.44 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 18c | 432.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 294.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 289.46$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.81 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 75c | 271.74$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 230.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 218$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 188.06$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.95 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…33a1backed No | 6c | 185.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 163$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 35c | 162.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 40c | 161.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.45 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 156.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 12c | 150.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.83 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…ffcabacked Yes | 12c | 120.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 16c | 112.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9641…5385backed Yes | 41c | 100.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 79c | 94.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 70c | 92.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…e3fbbacked Yes | 72c | 87.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 75c | 67.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 23c | 53.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea4…1bc7backed Yes | 20c | 51.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 52c | 48.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd9…f092backed Yes | 26c | 47.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +277.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 29c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed Yes | 27c | 37.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 41c | 36.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 49c | 35.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 69c | 20.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C or higher on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.