Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b55778c6d7c76c5e2488ccc8e810b7ea2d243fe843757a110fe8a906071f215
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,395,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,395,395 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed Yes | 0c | 202,175$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.56 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca7…ad36backed Yes | 0c | 199,482$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cb…9f12backed Yes | 1c | 147,171$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 1c | 57,503$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.52 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb7…6d16backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -79%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…d90bbacked Yes | 0c | 49,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 1c | 46,282$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.54 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7493…c5babacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…057cbacked Yes | 1c | 25,683$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba9…d724backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…d2dfbacked Yes | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d79…58abbacked Yes | 0c | 11,059$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4769…914abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes | 0c | 6,920$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed Yes | 0c | 6,732$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f1…af59backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,048$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…e853backed Yes | 1c | 5,152$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 0c | 5,030$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 1c | 4,288$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,015$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 1c | 4,004$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5312…1adabacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…739bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed Yes | 1c | 2,322$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 2c | 2,191$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…e81bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,768$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 4c | 1,476$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 1c | 1,185$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e8…9e0ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,178$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,030$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 52c | 801.74$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 10c | 704.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf71…b1d2backed Yes | 7c | 689.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 3c | 446.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 5c | 403.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 6c | 272.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 221.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 6c | 209.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 59c | 168.87$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 168.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 163$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 69c | 158.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 7c | 150.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 25c | 146.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 145.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 137.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 137.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 32c | 110.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 99.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 51c | 96.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 56c | 95.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 72c | 70.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 17c | 67.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101b…ea62backed Yes | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 26c | 63.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 32c | 63.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 32c | 62.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 44c | 57.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 38c | 55.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 21c | 54.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 47c | 53.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 45.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea4…1bc7backed Yes | 46c | 43.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 48c | 41.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9641…5385backed Yes | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 35c | 39.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 44c | 36.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 60c | 25.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 61c | 21.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 60c | 18.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 61c | 16.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 73c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 69c | 14.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C or higher on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.