TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: B8 vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
B8of B8, Inner Circle Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$209,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,464 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdffe…b4d3backed Inner Circle Esports0c17,993$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9914630.8%45 W · 101 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Inner Circle Esports34c14,551$4,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,893.6581843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed B862c13,983$8,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,313.7235153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Inner Circle Esports37c12,985$4,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,801.9715245.4%69 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Inner Circle Esports38c10,097$3,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,822.6432552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed B862c9,847$6,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,741.9421048.1%101 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed B867c7,367$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,466.58750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Inner Circle Esports36c5,950$2,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,141.4851252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Inner Circle Esports37c5,383$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.4475450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked B879c5,044$4,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.983,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked B861c4,765$2,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,858.375652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Inner Circle Esports39c4,241$1,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.7959839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed B864c4,119$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.152,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Inner Circle Esports15c2,943$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.021,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed B875c2,746$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.6645058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Inner Circle Esports18c2,703$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.1187047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed Inner Circle Esports22c2,672$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.2936554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Inner Circle Esports37c2,610$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.1846149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked Inner Circle Esports33c2,030$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.5814144%62 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Inner Circle Esports16c1,936$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.191,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Inner Circle Esports20c1,916$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.8788746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed B863c1,552$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.2637445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Inner Circle Esports32c1,254$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.316,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Inner Circle Esports25c1,250$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.51,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Inner Circle Esports12c1,211$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.351,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed B863c1,178$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.9512451.6%64 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed Inner Circle Esports39c1,087$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.824136.6%15 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-30.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed B870c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30049941.7%208 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed B859c998.25$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.2841850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked B864c990.19$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.0898052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3081…c666backed B863c977.8$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.794955.1%27 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Inner Circle Esports37c962.32$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.0123243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Inner Circle Esports36c849.72$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.21,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Inner Circle Esports38c699.99$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.9997040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked B878c658.17$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8139970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed B865c600$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21046749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf76…db81backed B860c562.69$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.632133.3%7 W · 14 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd03b…c2c6backed Inner Circle Esports39c558.09$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.52250%11 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked B862c547.7$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.588951.7%46 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Inner Circle Esports37c546.46$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.3125846.1%119 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked B861c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19519652%102 W · 94 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Inner Circle Esports37c491.04$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.6853444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Inner Circle Esports39c481.7$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.865,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Inner Circle Esports38c481.4$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.931,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked B862c406.08$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.319146.2%42 W · 49 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed B866c393.29$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.7260838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed Inner Circle Esports23c384$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.878324.1%20 W · 63 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Inner Circle Esports38c359.94$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.327950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3964…66b2backed B862c347.76$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed B863c343.15$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9631452.2%164 W · 150 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Inner Circle Esports39c333.48$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0669635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Inner Circle Esports39c317.31$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3124544.5%109 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ed…8bb4backed B863c310.41$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.851040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed B876c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7244648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Inner Circle Esports21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.524440.2%98 W · 146 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Inner Circle Esports27c299.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8123333%77 W · 156 L-22.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed B865c269.26$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6158961.3%361 W · 228 L-1.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Inner Circle Esports33c260.23$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4419935.7%71 W · 128 L-13.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Inner Circle Esports37c257.15$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.257653.9%41 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed B861c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.538650.8%196 W · 190 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Inner Circle Esports10c249.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0437441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf69b…a6ddbacked Inner Circle Esports37c246.86$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.297545.3%34 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Inner Circle Esports38c240.7$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.471,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Inner Circle Esports40c238.82$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.433847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Inner Circle Esports41c233.48$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7317756.5%100 W · 77 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa30f…90c2backed B864c230.46$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.425154.9%28 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked B863c213.72$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0884037.9%318 W · 522 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed B863c205.97$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.628436.9%31 W · 53 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c2…080bbacked Inner Circle Esports41c204.34$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.941154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Inner Circle Esports37c202.19$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.816060%36 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked B863c202.07$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9616451.8%85 W · 79 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Inner Circle Esports41c195.16$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0221351.2%109 W · 104 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf73…0436backed Inner Circle Esports25c191$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…6fe0backed Inner Circle Esports38c187.49$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2538452.3%201 W · 183 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddad…bce1backed B863c169.17$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5922252.7%117 W · 105 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Inner Circle Esports37c163.18$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.385459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Inner Circle Esports30c159.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.921528.8%62 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7002…395cbacked B876c157.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.92356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked B865c155.71$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0110945%49 W · 60 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ec…7307backed B863c151.16$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9313267.4%89 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked B863c150.97$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.863,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83fd…2aabbacked Inner Circle Esports27c150.18$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2211232.1%36 W · 76 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked B863c146.67$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2731852.8%168 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Inner Circle Esports39c144.83$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.926060%36 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed B865c140$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.62,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Inner Circle Esports41c133.72$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.567857.7%45 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed B862c133$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5474054.6%404 W · 336 L+15.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcd…42f2backed Inner Circle Esports35c130.73$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3763541.1%261 W · 374 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Inner Circle Esports38c126.68$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1444939.2%176 W · 273 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…a614backed B878c126.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8312138%46 W · 75 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ef…c822backed B878c126.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8315373.2%112 W · 41 L+18.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf885…d719backed Inner Circle Esports10c124$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.686842.6%29 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8e…c29ebacked Inner Circle Esports24c119.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6328143.8%123 W · 158 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6117…2fafbacked Inner Circle Esports38c117.03$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.479856.1%55 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Inner Circle Esports38c105.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.774,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Inner Circle Esports28c104.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.795,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…b30bbacked Inner Circle Esports10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109546.3%44 W · 51 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa655…b10cbacked Inner Circle Esports12c99.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122650%13 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Inner Circle Esports30c97.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1161837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Inner Circle Esports39c96.34$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5739258.2%228 W · 164 L+18.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.